ELECTION ROUND-UP IN AUSTRALIA, ROMANIA, AND PORTUGAL
Like Canada on April 28, Australian voters opted for stability and retained center-left Anthony Albanese in office during the snap election he called on May 3, 2025. Not only had his Liberal party been behind in the polls prior to the vote, his was the first Australian government returned to office for consecutive terms in over 25 years. Most analysts credit uncertainty regarding President Trump’s political and trade policies with giving the incumbent the edge – the same phenomenon which gave Canada’s liberals their surprising boost in April.
Meanwhile, in Romania, George Simion, a hard-right populist, won the first round of Romania’s presidential election on May 4, 2025 with 41% of the vote. Simion proudly modeled his successful campaign after U.S. President Donald Trump’s win, and opinion polls showed him as almost guaranteed to win the run-off election against the Mayor of Bucharest on May 18. However, in the end, it was the pro-EU candidate and mayor of the capital, Nicusor Dan, who won the election decisively on a 64 percent voter turnout, with Dan receiving about 53.9% of the total, while Simion trailed at 46.1%.
Comment: The foregoing results might be viewed as a repudiation of the populist views promoted by Mr. Trump. However, they continue to hold sway in other elections and especially in Europe. On May 18, 2025, Portugal held its third general election in three years. While the result delivered another minority government headed by the center-right Social Democratic Party with 89 of the 230 seats in the Assembly, it was the showing by the populist party Chega (Enough) that added momentum to Europe’s shift to the far right.
Chega’s result shook up the traditional balance of power in a trend witnessed elsewhere in Europe. For 50 years, the Social Democrats and the center-left Socialist Party have alternated in power. But on May 18, Chega collected the same number of seats as the Socialists with 58. One should anticipate another election in about a year or 18 months, an Embassy political office told SocoSix. End Comment.
AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REBOUNDS
Bloomberg, no friend of the current Administration’s economic policies, reported on May 27 that US consumer confidence rebounded sharply this month from an almost five-year low as perceptions of the economy and labor market improved as the Trump administration backed down from more extreme tariffs and tariff threats. Bloomberg reported that the Conference Board’s gauge of confidence increased by 12.3 points to 98, marking the biggest monthly gain in four years. The figure exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Comment: According to another Wall Street analyst, Bloomberg’s gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months surged by the most since 2011, while a measure of present conditions climbed as well, according to data released on May 27. The improvement in confidence was broad across age, income groups and political affiliations, with the strongest gains not surprisingly among Republicans. End Comment.
PAKISTAN VS INDIA: DID HUBRIS WIN?
In last month’s issue, we reported about rising concern about the potential military fallout which might accompany India’s expected retaliation against sites associated with the Laskar-e-Taiba (LET) terrorist organization with Pakistan. India blamed the LET for an attack on tourists in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir that had cost 26 lives and which led to wide-ranging calls for reprisals which Prime Minister Modi told his nation and the world India would undertake.
Well, India and Pakistan launched a serious four-day barrage of attacks and counterattacks ending with a truce allegedly promulgated by President Trump on May 10. Both sides claimed victory, but with Pakistan pointing to its shooting down of five (sic) modern Indian fighters, the Pakistan army’s public relations department effectively painted the conflict as a “win” for its side. Also vindicated, according to some observers, were Pakistan’s close military ties to China and its effective use of Chinese aircraft, air defense, and other weapons to full advantage.
Another perspective on the fighting gives the upper to India in no uncertain terms. A former senior diplomat in both New Delhi and Islamabad tells us that beneath Pakistan’s claim of victory lie the inconvenient facts of the results of the confrontation. True, by its own admission, India lost at least two aircraft. But by striking terrorist infrastructure and air bases deep within Pakistan’s heartland, and by suspending a 65-year-old bilateral river water-sharing treaty, India has seriously weakened Pakistan’s strategic position. Water is the key to life on the Indian sub-continent and if India plays this card to full effect, Pakistan’s economy could be seriously disrupted.
Without a doubt, the one man who did his reputation all manner of good was the Pakistani army chief, Asim Munir. So effective was the army’s depiction of victory in its conflict with India, that Munir changed almost overnight from arguably the least popular military leader in the country’s history due to his key role in the downfall and persecution of popular, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, to the ranks of a near-mythic hero. One so acclaimed, that Pakistan’s leading general was promoted (for only the second time in Pakistan’s history) to the rank of Field Marshall.
Comment: We agree with those who state that despite its aircraft losses, the current balance of power still clearly tilts in India’s favor. Nothing we have been able to find gives General Munir the military smarts one would associate with the rank of “Field Marshall.” Unlike many of his predecessors, a source in DIA told us in the strictest confidence that Munir was regarded by Washington as one of the least capable of Pakistan’s previous military and former ISI (state security) heads. He tells us that Munir entered the army through the Officers Training School, rather than the more prestigious Pakistan Military Academy. The son of a schoolteacher who doubled as an imam, the new Field Marshal likes to advertise his piety, and he alleges that he has memorized the Holy Quran as part of his upbringing. Munir received no training in either the U.S. or the UK, although he spent some time in Saudi Arabia. The recent conflict with India may have set the stage for Munir to reinvent himself as a hero, although just for how long he will be able to sustain this status is the key issue, according to our DIA analyst.
The Pakistani army’s skilled public-relations machinery may have turned the once-unpopular army chief into a temporary hero at home, but India demonstrated, during the four days of fighting, that it can hit targets across Pakistan at will. This raises questions about the ultimate effectiveness of Pakistan’s Chinese-built air defenses. In contrast, Indian air defenses largely neutralized hundreds of Pakistani drones and missiles.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a new doctrine under which India will not differentiate between a government sponsoring terrorism and the masterminds of the terrorism itself. Modi added that the current lull in fighting is not a permanent cease-fire but a temporary “suspension of military operations.” Hopefully, these words will press the Trump Administration to stress the importance of further mediating the conflict between these two, nuclear-power antagonists. In the coming months and years, India will almost certainly seek to increase its capacity to pressure Pakistan by building dams on shared rivers and learning from its less than perfect performance in May. It is hard to how to see how the promotion of the Pakistani army chief to the rank of Field Marshall will compensate for this increased resolve on the part of its powerful and – for now – even more hostile neighbor. End Comment.
U.S./GULF TIES: TRILLIONS IN INVESTMENT/TRADE IS THE GOAL
President Trump always said that his first foreign trip would “bring home the bacon.” No courteous nods to old friends and allies like Ottawa, Mexico City, or London for him!
So it was that in his first term, in 2017, the President chose to make his opening foreign visit to Saudi Arabia because it promised to deliver us a $500 million investment deal. For similar reasons, he chose to make the first substantive overseas trip during his second term, from May 13-16 2025, again to Saudi Arabia, adding on two other wealthy Gulf states, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where he claimed to have signed trade and investment deals approaching a trillion dollars or more.
An invitation-only gathering on May 13, 2025 called “The Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum” brought together senior officials and executives to discuss the details behind deals valued in the trillions.
And certainly, the dealmakers were there. From the U.S., the President invited Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, and Citi’s Jane Fraser. Some of tech’s biggest names, including Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Palantir’s Alex Karp, also participated, along with White House special advisor, Elon Musk and AI and crypto czar David Sacks.
In the end, Saudi Arabia pledged to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years, while the UAE said it will pump in $1.4 trillion into the U.S. economy over the next decade. The highlight of the May 14 visit to Qatar was his visit to the largest U.S. military base in the region at al-Udayd, and Doha’s controversial gift of a Boeing 747 flying palace valued at $400 million.
The UAE received support in its quest to become a future global AI center (Please see following item for additional details.)
Comment: As expected, Trump’s visit focused on US-bound investment pledges and weapons deals — normalization with Israel and other grand security arrangements were not high on the agenda. Still, Trump managed to “make policy” through a few choice words in surprise meetings and public statements which some might say gave his visit political substance, as well. For example,
- On Palestine, he said: “We’re looking at Gaza. And we’re going to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving,” the president told reporters
- On Iran: Trump, in an exchange with reporters at a business roundtable in Doha, Qatar, described talks between American envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as “very serious negotiations” for long-term peace and said they were continuing to progress.
- On Syria: Trump told President al-Sharaa that he has a tremendous opportunity to do something historic in his country after U.S. sanctions are lifted. He urged al-Sharaa to deport “foreign terrorists and Palestinian terrorists” from Syria, help the U.S. to prevent the resurgence of ISIS in the region and assume responsibility for ISIS detention centers in Northeast Syria. In response, President al-Sharaa thanked Trump and recognized the significant opportunity presented by the Iran’s withdrawal from Syria, as well as shared U.S.-Syrian interests in countering terrorism and eliminating chemical weapons.
And as if these remarks and actions were not enough to raise issues with Netanyahu and his right wing government, it was noted by many observers that not only were both MbS (in person) and Turkey’s Erdogan (by video phone link) present during Trump’s meeting with the new, Syrian leader on a policy change opposed by the Israeli Government, but that the President exited the region by-passing our alleged closest non-NATO ally in its entirety on his first visit to the Middle East. End Comment.
UAE’S U.S. MIDDLEMAN
During a recent conversation with a former top American diplomat in the UAE, SocoSIX asked who stood out in terms of advancing the Emirates’ good relations with the U.S. and its growing international influence. Our source attributed the strength of our ties with the UAE to that country’s longtime Ambassador (since 2008) to the U.S., Yusif Mana al-Utayba. Utayba has access to official and non-official Washington to an extent unusual for most foreign envoys.
However, our source commented that, despite Utayba’s standing both in DC and in Abu Dhabi (his father was prominent as the petroleum minister and as OPEC’s president during that organization’s period of maximum clout), the ruling Al Nahayan family continues to use the offices of a prominent Jewish-American attorney named Martin Edelman. Our source said that Edelman has brokered many of the family’s most consequential deals from the 2008 purchase of the Manchester City soccer football club to its more recent acquisition of Emirati access to Nvidia chips. He said that Edelman’s pedigree, with ties to both liberals like the Kennedy family and George Soros, and with his background in New York real estate which give him a personal relationship with Donald Trump starting in the 1980s, matched perfectly the type of go-between favored by many Gulf Arab governments.
Asked how this special relationship with the UAE developed, our source told us that Edelman was introduced to then UAE strongman (as defense minister and Crown Prince and now president), Shaykh Muhammad bin Zayid (MbZ), during meetings arranged during a 2002 visit by then CENTCOM Commander General Tommy Franks. MbZ forged a liking for Edelman and introduced him to his brother, Shaykh Tahnun bin Zayid, who handled finances for the Al Nahayan family.
IEA WARNS OF CRITICAL MINERALS SHORTAGES
In the midst of concerns over a tariff-induced global trade war, the IEA issued a report on May 24, 2025 titled, “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions which warns that the current international effort to meet net zero in emissions productions by mid-century could lead to a six-fold increase in overall mineral requirements for clean energy technologies as soon as 2040. At an individual commodity level, energy-related technologies could account for 40% of copper and rare earth element demand by 2040, 60-70% of demand for nickel and cobalt; and almost 90% of demand for lithium.
If realized, this would mark a massive increase in absolute terms for these critical minerals. The IEA warns that as the costs of technologies fall, mineral inputs will account for an increasingly important part of the value of key components, making their overall costs more vulnerable to potential mineral price swings. For example, the growth of electric vehicles – which the agency has said could number between 145-230 million globally by 2030 (along with battery storage) — is expected to raise lithium demand more than 40 times by 2040, while demand for other battery ingredients including cobalt and nickel could increase 20-25 times over the same timeframe. Copper demand could more than double as countries expand their electricity networks and install more power lines, while demand for rare earth elements could grow three to seven times higher compared to current levels.
The IEA concludes that these forecasts “raise huge questions about the availability and reliability of supply”, including market volatility that could push up the prices of these minerals and in turn delay the energy transition. It states that given the urgency of reducing emissions, this is a possibility that the world can ill afford.
Comment: An American working for the IEA tells us that this report only tells part of the story. It also warns about how the control of many of these products are too closely controlled by only a few sources. This is especially a problem for “refining” and new sources for all of the critical minerals and rare earths are being located every month. Refining, however, is currently largely the purview of China. He added that scare tactics work, although he was quick to say that the IEA report is based on sound data and that the pessimism reported is justified. He noted that the production of rare earths is a particular problem. China mines 70 percent of the total at present, and processes over 90 percent of the rare earths mined in the world, minerals which are critical to electric cars, smartphones and missiles. Now, companies from Canada, the UK, U.S., Australia and even India are striving to open up new mines and to ship them directly to markets where new processing plants are being built, including in the U.S.
Our source also reminded us that science and technology are not zero-sum games: what is in vogue today may be replaced by something either cheaper or more readily available tomorrow. He cited the increasing use of manganese, rather than cobalt in the electrodes of lithium batteries, citing the decision by General Motors to do so in its forthcoming line of electric vehicles. Not only is this cheaper – manganese is currently going for about $1000/ton while cobalt is around 30 times more expensive – but GM insists that manganese-rich batteries are denser than their cobalt alternatives, permitting EV ranges of up to 400 miles. Pressed for any downsides, our source admitted that there are concerns that they could degrade faster than traditional lithium-ion batteries utilizing cobalt. End Comment.
SIGNIFICANCE OF PUTIN’S WWII VICTORY PARADE
Russian President Vladimir Putin took center stage at Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9, surrounding himself by friendly world leaders in a highly choreographed show designed to show the Western world that Russia is far from isolated. Watching as thousands of troops marched across Moscow’s Red Square, Putin stood next to his guest of honor, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The annual May 9 commemoration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II is one of the most important days in Putin’s calendar, and this year marks its 80th anniversary. Traditionally, the day has been dedicated to the estimated 25 million to 27 million Soviet soldiers and civilians who died during the conflict. But since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Victory Day has become more of a propaganda exercise, with Putin framing the war against Russia’s much smaller neighbor as a continuation of what Russians call the Great Patriotic War.
And while celebrations were muted in the past three years, Russia has not held back this time.
Putin and Xi were joined by 20 world leaders, most of whom had the black and orange ribbon of Saint George pinned to their lapels. Many of them have also sent troops to march in the parade, alongside Russian servicemen. The Russian military symbol dates back to imperial times, but it has become hugely controversial in recent years, having been coopted as a sign of support for Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine. It has been banned in a number of countries.
Comment: As impressive as it was, this parade also shows the strain which Ukraine’s war is having on the Russian military. A DIA source told SocoSIX that this parade included only half as many representatives of Russia’s military units and hardware as parades prior to 2022.
This parade certainly demonstrated that the West has failed in its effort to isolate Russia from much of the international community. The three leading foreign leaders in attendance were China’s Xi Jinping, Brazil’s Lula, and Egypt’s al-Sisi. However, the one who was the most critical was of course President Xi. An astute FSO at Embassy Moscow noted that Xi is increasingly tightening the screws within Russia binding them in lockstep in a way which is starting to make some senior Russians a bit nervous. She noted that in an Op-Ed in a leading Moscow newspaper, Xi wrote that, “We must leverage the certainty and resilience of our partnership of strategic coordination to jointly accelerate the shift toward a multipolar world.” Translated, she said that this is being read within the smarter elements of the diplomatic and intelligence community as meaning that he now sees a historic opportunity (with Russia) to push harder and more quickly towards a post-US-led world. To this end, Trump has given him lots of new ammunition to employ, unless the President surprises one and all by pulling a few more rabbits out of his MAGA hat. He has done it before. End Comment.
